I find it very interesting that, in the 10 years I have been using this platform, making comments, seeing others make comments that anyone would find my 1 comment so intriguing. Is the term "biased" that triggering? I have used that word (and have seen it) multiple times. What I have not seen is the same energy put into these other peoples comments when they use the term. This seemingly targeting of my post and the diatribes that follow is very telling.
As I have said, people make predictions for fun. It is possible that they have knowledge of judging panels, contest history, group history etc.... it is also entirely possible that they named random groups in a random order. To fallacious pretend that my comment had so detrimental meaning behind is, quite frankly, stupid. If you are going to have this much energy on my comments, keep that same energy towards everyone elses. Period.
I refuse to entertain the disingenuous comment by Alex about why I put my prediction.
Also, biases are inevitable in any case. We all carry intrinsic biases whether that is race, type of cheese, style of shoe, or proclivity towards a specific show choir. As objective as they try to make show choir...it is still very subject..due to...preferences...or BIAS.
Actually, no, Bryan - you're making predictions (which are your best guesses as to who will win) or you are picking an order of groups based on which ones you like the most (in other words, a list of groups you are rooting for - which is your bias).
I didn't mean for this topic to blow up and as I have tried to explain multiple times, I wasn't picking out your specific post for any reason, DeJuan. You are simply taking it personally. I have indeed seen other people say "this prediction is biased" before, you are correct, and it never made sense to me. I saw yours the other day and decided I'd ask about it since I was curious as to what you meant. I know you are an active member so I figured I would probably have a decent chance at getting a response, and thus I left a reply.
I also provided an example of a feature I have been mulling over for a little while, and some reservations I had about it because of this very topic. Clearly my instincts weren't entirely misguided.
Apparently we define "prediction" differently. If you ask a weatherman to predict the weather over the next few days, I don't think it's very reasonable to expect "random [temperatures] in a random order." No, you are asking for his best, most educated forecast on what is to come. Whether he prefers sunshine or not has nothing to do with it. I was simply asking if you felt whether or not you had the ability to take your bias out of your list, and if so, if the result would be different. That's all.
I can sense frustration here and I am more than happy to let this subject rest. I am also more than happy to defend your right to your opinion, as I have stated in every reply I have made to you. None of this was an attack, and Johnathon (Kettlecorn) also shared my sentiment, so clearly I am not the only one who was curious. We're all here to discuss; I was just discussing. I wish you a wonderful rest of the season.
I'm interested to know how people approach these "predictions;" is this the list of groups you believe will win, in this order, or just how you'd personally like to see the results play out? I ask because you say you're "biased," but I don't really understand how that affects a prediction.
As an extreme, non-realistic example, if I were to predict who would win a free throw competition between Kobe Bryant or my best friend, I would be biased in favor of my best friend in terms of personal association. I would love to see my best friend win the contest. But I would still predict that Kobe would win, because he's the better basketball player.
This isn't a slight on your list... I'm just more curious than anything what people mean when they say that.
This is all very interesting, and please know I certainly wasn't calling you out for your list DeJuan (I tried to communicate that when I posted). I was legitimately just confused and seeking clarification.
One of the reasons I made a comment was that the popularity of event predictions seems to be continually increasing, and as always I look for ways to improve and enhance the site with features that visitors find engaging and useful. One idea I've had is a sort of "prediction poll" where users could submit who they think the winners of an upcoming event may be; sort of like an aggregate of all of the individual prediction posts that are made in the comment section. There are several reasons I haven't moved forward with it, however; a primary one is that I think it would mostly turn into a popularity contest with people selecting their favorites or their own choir and not truly making a prediction of winners. That has sort of played out here.
Your list can be whatever you like. I just saw the word "bias" and it made me think, so I replied. I appreciate your insight and honesty.
I’ve been an active user of this for the past ten years. I’ve used the term bias many times due to 1. My affiliated choir & or my friendships with ppl involved in choirs. This is the first time it’s became such a hot topic. People make predictions for fun. I don’t find it particularly helpful/productive to examine the reasons why behind them.
I guess it's just semantics, but I just don't see how it's possible to make a "biased prediction." A prediction is your best guess as to what the outcome of something will be. Who you happen to like the most has nothing to do with it. If I say "predict who the next president of the United States will be," I'm not asking which candidate you align with the most, I'm asking which one you think will get the most votes - even if you despise them. Sometimes the two happen to be the same, but it's just coincidental.
Now, one person's predictions may be different from another based on their analysis - for example, "I think this group will win because Judge A tends to favor that style," where another person might say "I think this other group will win because they haven't lost at this competiton for 10 years." Both of those predictions are valid, because there is reasonable data to support each selection. I would disagree that it isn't particularly helpful to examine that reasoning; in fact, the predictions I enjoy the most are the ones which lay out the basis for each selection that has been made. Many competitions are stacked, so it's a challenge/fun exercise to try and guess the order of where groups will place. Can group A eek out a win over group B, and what would it take for them to do so? Simply asking "which are your favorite groups?" or "what order would you like to see the results play out?" is an entirely different question, though.
Once again, please understand that you are free to make whatever lists you want. This is an open forum. I personally just wouldn't call a list of favorites a prediction, that's all.
Perhaps phrasing it a different way would help: what if you were offered the ability to earn points for your predictions, and you got more points for each group you managed to get correct when compared to the actual placements. The person with the most points "wins." If your goal was to win this hypothetical contest, would your predictions be different?